Why Bayern Munich will beat PSG in the UEFA Champions League semi-finals
Bayern Munich's UEFA Champions League semi-final against holders Paris Saint-Germain is a match-up worthy of the title decider. Here's why Vincent Kompany's men will make it to the showpiece in Budapest on 30 May.
Kane the world’s best
The very presence of Harry Kane is enough to strike fear into any opposition defence. The England captain has hit his stride since swapping Tottenham Hotspur for Bayern in the summer of 2023, and this season has taken his goalscoring to record-setting levels.
His effort in Bayern’s 4-3 win over Real in the second leg of their quarter-final meeting took him to 50 goals for the current campaign – a single-season best for him – including 12 in the Champions League. Only former PSG man Kylian Mbappé has more (15) at Europe’s top table this term, and Kane could yet have three more games to rein him in.
Watch: All of Kane’s Bundesliga goals this season
With one more goal since the Madrid game, as well as six assists this season, Kane has been directly involved in a goal every hour he has played. It looks like a case of when, not if, he will score against Paris.
Musiala to the fore
Kane has been ably assisted in the final third this season by Michael Olise, Luis Díaz and, until recently, Serge Gnabry – the four players together making up one of the most fearsome attacking units in world football.
Gnabry was recently ruled out with torn adductor muscle, which will keep him out of this fixture and indeed likely this summer’s FIFA World Cup with Germany. His loss stands to be Jamal Musiala’s gain, however.
Watch: Every single Musiala goal in the Bundesliga
Musiala has been working his way back from an injury of his own – a broken ankle sustained in last summer’s 2-0 loss to PSG in the FIFA Club World Cup – and now has the chance to seize his position at No.10, for club and country, starting with revenge against Paris.
A question of control
Bayern and PSG each boast some of the finest midfield metronomes on the planet in Vitinha and Joshua Kimmich… but handily for Bayern, Vitinha is a doubt for the game due to an inflammation in his heel.
“We’ll take a calm and measured approach to see how the injured players can make a comeback. But I don’t know,” PSG head coach Luis Enrique said when asked if Vitinha would be back in time for Tuesday’s semi-final first leg. “We need to manage Vitinha’s minor injury; some players are a bit tired or have a few niggles.”
An absent, or even diminished, Vitinha, is good news for Bayern. And Kimmich on the ball as much as possible is definitely good. No midfielder has completed more passes in the Bundesliga this season than the club vice-captain (92.39 percent), which is more impressive taking his 26 crosses and proclivity for defence-splitting passes into account.
Weight of history
PSG may have won their most meeting with Bayern last summer, the day Musiala picked up his aforementioned injury, but the Bavarians’ overall head-to-head record is better.
In their 15 Champions League meetings to date, Bayern have prevailed nine times compared to the Parisians’ six, leading 21-16 in aggregated goals between the two.
Either side of that Club World Cup meeting, Bayern have beaten PSG in Champions League group games, including the league phase in this year’s competition, when they won 2-1 at the Parc des Princes thanks to a Díaz double.
PSG were also the victims when Bayern won the Champions League in 2020, beating them 1-0 in the final after Kingsley Coman’s header.
Bayern have won the Bundesliga already
Bayern sealed the Bundesliga title with their 4-2 win over VfB Stuttgart last Sunday, and they did so with something of a second string team with Kane, Olise and Díaz rested from the starting line-up, as well as other regulars like Musiala, Dayot Upamecano and Konrad Laimer.
Watch: Bayern secure the title with victory over Stuttgart
Having won the league, Bayern can now focus on Europe, so their first-choice XI won’t be tired against PSG. Paris cannot say the same: the Ligue 1 title chase in France is going down to the wire this season, and Luis Enrique’s side, whilst top, are only one point better off than second-placed Lens at the time of writing.
A dash more fatigue on the French half of this tie can only help Bayern, who have significant weapons of their own anyway.
The PSG-Bayern fixture is a dream one, but there is every reason to believe that Kompany’s side will carry the day.
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