Why Borussia Dortmund will beat Bayern Munich in Der Klassiker

Borussia Dortmund have the opportunity to cut Bayern Munich’s lead at the top of the Bundesliga table to five points when they welcome Vincent Kompany’s side to Signal Iduna Park in the latest instalment of Der Klassiker on Matchday 24. We outline why Niko Kovać’s troops should be confident of claiming a vital three points…

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Overcoming a Bayern side who have won 19 of their 23 Bundesliga games so far this season – and scored an eye-watering 85 goals in the process – is undoubtedly an unenviable task, but if anyone can inflict a second league defeat of the season on the reigning champions, it is in-form Dortmund.

Narrowly beaten at the Allianz Arena on Matchday 7, Borussia have remained on Bayern’s coat-tails thanks to a superb 16-match unbeaten run in Germany’s top flight. Victories over Wolfsburg and Mainz on Matchdays 21 and 22 respectively reduced the gap at the top to just three points, only for Bayern to win their games in hand and restore their six-point advantage at the summit.

That lead was stretched to eight points on Matchday 23, but that only tells half the story. While Bayern survived a late scare to edge past an Eintracht Frankfurt side with only one win in their past nine league outings, Dortmund brilliantly fought back from two goals down to salvage a point at European hopefuls RB Leipzig.

Watch: RB Leipzig 2-2 Borussia Dortmund - highlights

That 2-2 draw may have halted Dortmund’s six-match winning run in the league, but the manner of their recovery – capped by Fábio Silva’s dramatic 95th-minute strike – means they head into Saturday’s all-important meeting with the wind still very much in their sails.

Silva’s last-gasp leveller was not the first time Dortmund have struck late in recent months. Serhou Guirassy’s winner against Wolfsburg came in the 87th minute, while Emre Can scored from the penalty spot in the fifth minute of added time to earn a 3-2 home victory over St. Pauli in mid-January.

Julian Brandt’s equaliser in the 3-3 draw at Frankfurt came even later than that – in the sixth minute of second-half stoppage time. Guirassy’s quick-fire double against Heidenheim on Matchday 20 may have come midway through the second period, but those two goals also helped Dortmund salvage valuable points from the jaws of defeat.

Watch: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Heidenheim - highlights

About the players

9

Serhou

Guirassy

Borussia Dortmund

Put simply, Dortmund never know when they are beaten. Bayern may have scored 85 Bundesliga goals this term, but they have only kept one clean sheet in eight games since the turn of the year – a vulnerability Borussia will be confident of exploiting in front of their own supporters.

That being said, home advantage has not always translated into maximum points in Der Klassiker. Indeed, Bayern’s 2-1 win on 18 October was the first time either side had triumphed on home soil since a 4-2 victory for the Bavarians towards the end of the 2022/23 campaign.

Dortmund, though, have every reason to be confident as they prepare to host Bayern in front of the Gelbe Wand. Only two Bundesliga sides – Leipzig and VfB Stuttgart – have escaped Signal Iduna Park with a share of the spoils this season, with Sebastian Hoeneß’s VfB needing a 91st-minute equaliser to avoid defeat on Matchday 11.

Dortmund have won each of their last six Bundesliga matches on home soil, scoring 17 goals in the process. - IMAGO/Celina Leiers

Had it not been for Deniz Undav’s dramatic equaliser, Borussia would be heading into Der Klassiker on an eight-game winning league run on home soil. Kovać’s side have also scored at least three goals in each of their last four top-flight home matches, plundering four against a resurgent Mainz earlier this month. Bayern’s fearsome frontline has rightly earned plenty of plaudits, but Dortmund’s attack deserves just as much credit.

Spearheading that frontline is Guirassy, who went seven Bundesliga matches without a goal earlier this term but appears to have rediscovered his ruthless scoring touch in recent weeks. Indeed, the 29-year-old had found the net six times in his last four games in all competitions prior to the draw at Leipzig, scoring twice against both Mainz and Heidenheim.

Only Harry Kane has scored more Bundesliga goals since the turn of the year than Guirassy, who in just a few short weeks has leapt to joint-fourth in the division’s goalscoring charts. With 11 of the Guinean’s 16 goals in all competitions this season coming on home soil, Bayern can ill afford to let Guirassy out of their sights on Saturday evening.

Watch: The best of Serhou Guirassy in 2025/26

Guirassy has yet to score for Dortmund in Der Klassiker but netted a late penalty to rescue a 2-2 draw for former club Stuttgart at the Allianz Arena in September 2022. Some might say he is due a goal against the Bavarians – and on current form, you would be brave to bet against the striker continuing his purple patch against Borussia’s title rivals.

About the clubs

Borussia Dortmund

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