5 reasons why RB Leipzig will beat Bayern Munich
RB Leipzig have hit top form just in time for their trip to defending Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich. Find out why Martin Demichelis’ charges can keep their momentum going at the Allianz Arena...
1) Leipzig’s attacking displays
Although Vincent Kompany’s Bayern lead the Bundesliga’s goalscoring charts this term with 16 goals, Leipzig are only one behind Germany’s record champions.
Impressively, the Saxony club’s 15 league strikes equals a club record at this stage of a season and although 14 of those have come at the Red Bull Arena, Demichelis will be confident his side can find their goalscoring boots on the road.
“A big club has big ambitions,” the Argentine coach expressed after Leipzig’s 6-0 rout of Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday. With three wins from three at home, he added: “We need to show what we’ve produced in our last three home games with the same courage and conviction away from home as well.”
Watch: Nkunku and Nusa - Leipzig's deadly double act
2) Christopher Nkunku and Antonio Nusa shine
Despite losing star attacker Yan Diomande to Real Madrid in the summer, Leipzig have soon compensated for the Ivorian’s departure with the return of Christopher Nkunku. The Frenchman is flourishing on loan from Chelsea, and is developing an excellent understanding with Antonio Nusa in a new-look attack.
Nkunku (four goals, one assist) and/or Nusa (three goals, three assists) have been involved in nine of Leipzig’s 15 goals this season, while their combined 11 goal contributions makes them the most potent attacking duo in the Bundesliga this season.
“He’s [Nusa] one of the best wingers in Europe right now,” lauded Demichelis after Leipzig’s victory over Frankfurt.
In comparison, Bayern’s Michael Olise (four goals, one assist), Harry Kane (three goals, two assists) and Ismael Saibari (two goals, three assists), each have five involvements in Germany's top flight heading into Matchday 6.
3) Exhibiting impressive finishing efficiency
The finishing efficiency metric, introduced in Bundesliga Match Facts a few years ago, shows how well players utilise their opportunities. Comparing Leipzig and Bayern, there’s a notable discrepancy between the two clubs.
Bayern (-1.5) are underperforming, while Leipzig (+1.1) have shown their clinical edge in the final third. Nkunku exhibited his poacher-like instinct with a hat-trick against Frankfurt on Matchday 5, and that could prove particularly important against Bayern, where chances will certainly be difficult to come by against one of the league’s best defences which has conceded four goals.
4) Bayern not at their best
Generating an xG of 5.9 from 42 shots against Schalke (0-0) on Matchday 2 and Augsburg (2-2) on Matchday 5, Germany’s record champions have already dropped as many points in the division this season as they did in the entire first half of last season.
What’s more, this season Bayern have needed eight shots to find the net in the division, in contrast to Leipzig’s six, while they’ve conceded five goals across their last two competive matches having been held to a 3-3 draw by Norwegian champions Viking in the UEFA Champions League following the stalemate in Augsburg.
Watch: Leipzig stunned Bayern in 2022/23
5) Leipzig enjoy Munich
While the overall record clearly favours Bayern having lost only three of their 25 competitive games (14 wins, eight draws) against Leipzig, two of the Saxony club’s three wins came at the Allianz Arena. In 2023, RBL won 3-1 in the Bundesliga - with Nkunku on the scoresheet - and 3-0 in the Supercup.
Confidence is certainly growing after a third straight victory across all competitions after Tuesday's 1-0 Champions League victory over PSV Eindhoven, and Leipzig will certainly be cautiously optimistic of their chances in Munich this weekend.
