Final-day permutations: Title race, European battle and relegation
The Bundesliga title race, the chase for UEFA Champions League and other European places, and the nail-biting struggle to avoid relegation - bundesliga.com breaks down who can clinch what and how on the final day of the 2022/23 season.
All fixtures kick off at the same time on the last matchday, meaning everything will be decided from 3.30pm CEST on Saturday.
Make your Matchday 34 predictions now!
The league title
For the first time since 2018/19, the title will be decided on the final day of the season. Borussia Dortmund currently hold a two-point advantage after leapfrogging Bayern Munich last weekend.
Dortmund will therefore be champions at home to Mainz if:
- They win
- Bayern fail to win at Cologne
Bayern Munich's only chance of retaining the title is if:
- They win in Cologne and Dortmund fail to beat Mainz
Watch: Tactical analysis of the top two's attacks
UEFA Champions League
Bayern, Dortmund, and now RB Leipzig after their win at Bayern, are already guaranteed a top-four finish and a place in next season's Champions League group stage. Leipzig are also confirmed in third place.
It is therefore a straight shootout between Union Berlin and Freiburg as the pair battle it out to qualify for the Champions League for the first time ever. They are currently locked on 59 points, with Union occupying fourth by virtue of their superior goal difference (+12) compared to Freiburg's +8.
Union will qualify for the Champions League in fourth at home to Werder Bremen if:
- They better Freiburg's result away at Eintracht Frankfurt
- They equal Freiburg's result while maintaining a superior goal difference
Freiburg will qualify for the Champions League in fourth away at Eintracht Frankfurt if:
- They better Union's result at home to Werder Bremen
- They equal Union's result in a way that sees a four-goal swing in their favour
In the event the two teams are level on points and goal difference, places will be determined by goals scored (currently both 50).
UEFA Europa League and Europa Conference League
As things stand, the team that finishes fifth in the Bundesliga will qualify for the Europa League group stage. That will be one of Union or Freiburg.
Sixth place will earn a spot in the Europa Conference League play-offs. That is currently occupied by Bayer Leverkusen on 50 points, ahead of Wolfsburg (49) and Eintracht Frankfurt (47).
Leverkusen will secure sixth place away at Bochum if:
- They win
- They draw and Wolfsburg fail to beat Hertha
- Wolfsburg lose to Hertha and Frankfurt fail to beat Freiburg
Wolfsburg will climb up to sixth at home to Hertha Berlin if:
- They win and Leverkusen fail to beat Bochum
- They draw and Leverkusen lose to Bochum by at least two goals
- They draw by scoring one more goal than Leverkusen, when Leverkusen lose by a one-goal margin. This is due to having scored more away goals in head-to-head encounters (see below)
Frankfurt will finish sixth at home to Freiburg if:
- They win, Leverkusen lose at Bochum resulting in a six-goal swing and Wolfsburg lose to Hertha
- They win, Leverkusen lose at Bochum and Wolfsburg draw to Hertha, with Frankfurt turning goal difference in their favour
Watch: It's Decision Day across the Bundesliga on Matchday 34
Want more Bundesliga Action?
Seventh place
Seventh place could provide a spot in the Europa Conference League play-offs, with sixth going into the Europa League group stage. This will happen if Leipzig - already in the Champions League - win the DFB Cup. It will also happen if Frankfurt win the cup, having also finished in the top seven in the league.
The only teams who can still finish in seventh are Leverkusen, Wolfsburg and Frankfurt.
Frankfurt will finish seventh at home to Freiburg if:
- They win and Wolfsburg lose to Hertha
- They win by at least five goals to ensure their goal difference is better than Wolfsburg's in the case they draw with Hertha. If goal difference is level, Frankfurt will need to have scored more goals
The relegation battle
Hertha Berlin were relegated to Bundesliga 2 after a 1-1 draw with Bochum on Matchday 33. They will also finish bottom of the table regardless of results on the final day.
Four teams are still in danger of joining Hertha, while Hoffenheim in 13th can mathematically still drop as low as 16th and the play-off spot.
Hoffenheim will be guaranteed safety at Stuttgart if:
- They get at least a point
- They lose and Bochum fail to make up 26 goals on them
Augsburg will be safe away at Borussia Mönchengladbach if:
- They win
- They draw and Bochum fail to achieve a 16-goal swing at home to Leverkusen
- Either Bochum or Stuttgart fail to win against Leverkusen and Hoffenheim respectively
Watch: Stuttgart beat Mainz to keep survival in their own hands
Stuttgart will be safe at home to Hoffenheim if:
- They win, since Bochum need to make up 23 goals in their own win against Leverkusen
- They draw and both Bochum and Schalke fail to win against Leverkusen and Leipzig respectively
- Bochum lose to Leverkusen and Schalke fail to beat Leipzig
Bochum will be safe at home to Bayer Leverkusen if:
- They win and Stuttgart fail to beat Hoffenheim or Augsburg lose to Gladbach
- They draw and Stuttgart lose to Hoffenheim and Schalke fail to beat Leipzig
Bochum will go into at least the play-off at home to Bayer Leverkusen if:
- They win
- They draw and Schalke fail to beat Leipzig
- Schalke lose in Leipzig
Schalke will be safe away at Leipzig if:
- They win and both Stuttgart and Bochum fail to win
- They draw, Bochum lose to Leverkusen, and Stuttgart lose to Hoffenheim by a 22 or 23-goal margin (depending on goals scored)
Schalke will go into at least the play-off away at RB Leipzig if:
- They win and Bochum do not win against Leverkusen
- They draw and Bochum lose to Leverkusen
Criteria for determining positions when teams are level on points
- Goal difference over the season
- Goals scored over the season
- Head-to-head results between the respective teams
- Away goals scored in head-to-head results
- Away goals scored over the season
- A deciding game at a neutral venue
Find out which teams are jostling to come up from Bundesliga 2
Related news
Leverkusen break European unbeaten record
The Bundesliga champions' 44-match streak is a first among teams across Europe's top five leagues.
5 reasons Leverkusen will beat West Ham - AGAIN!
The freshly minted Bundesliga champions have a job to finish after winning the first leg of their Europa League quarter-final tie...
Matchday 30 probable teams
How much rotation will we see from newly crowned champions Leverkusen as they bid to remain unbeaten away at top-four chasing Dortmund?