Mainz on a mission: What does being bottom at Christmas mean for their survival chances?
Mainz will start the new year at the bottom of the Bundesliga, meaning they’ll need a huge turnaround in form if they’re to partake the Germany’s top tier next season, but can it be done?
Well, according to the history books, it can. However, only a handful of clubs have managed to do so in recent years.
The last of which was Huub Stevens’ Hoffenheim side of 2015/16, who eventually finished the season in 15th place after sitting rock bottom at the turn of the year. In the first half of the season before the winter break, Stevens’ side had collected 13 points and sat two points off Werder Bremen in the relegation play-off place.
Mainz currently sit on seven points and are just four points behind St. Pauli in 16th, who they’ll host on Matchday 15.
Since that 2015/16 season, every side that has ended the year bottom of the pile has also ended the season there, with Schalke’s 17th-place finish in 2022/23 the only exception. While recent seasons all paint a rather bleak picture for Urs Fischer’s side, a look at the other side of the 2015/16 canvas offers a slightly better view.
Freiburg managed to escape from the claws of Bundesliga 2 having been dead last come the 2011/12 winter break, sitting two points away from 16th and five from outright safety after 17 games played, with Christian Streich the mastermind behind their escape, which saw them finish in 12th.
The Black Forest club’s turnaround in fortunes followed that of Borussia Mönchengladbach the season before them, after Lucien Favre guided them to safety having taken over after 22 games.
The Foals were seven points from safety at Christmas and had the same sized bridge to gap by the time of Favre’s arrival, but managed to survive via the relegation play-off, with their 16th place finish seeing them end the campaign on the right side of a seven point gap between themselves and bottom side Pauli.
That season saw Gladbach become the first team since… Gladbach, in the 2008/09 season under Hans Meyer, to complete the survival feat.
Mainz themselves have experience in avoiding relegation too, managing unlikely escapes in both the 2020/21 and 2023/24 seasons under Bo Svensson and Bo Henriksen respectively, although those climbs to safety didn’t begin from last place.
In 2020/21, Svensson took over at the start of January, when the 05ers had just six points and one win to their name and guided them to 12th, picking up 33 points between his appointment and the season finale.
Watch: Mainz's 2024 relegation rollercoaster
Henriksen inherited a Mainz side with a considerably better points tally (12) in February of the 2023/24 campaign, although they were nine points away from safety in 17th. Similar to his predecessor, Henriksen and Mainz ended that season in 13th, before reaching the UEFA Conference League in 2024/25.
Altogether, only five teams in the last 30 years that have sat in last place by the time of the winter break have managed to stay in the division, a worryingly low 17 percent of all sides that have attempted to do so.
That means the chances are low for Fischer and his men in the second part of 2025/26, but far from impossible.
Luckily for Mainz, they have someone who knows what it takes to make that jump to safety from the Bundesliga basement, midfielder Nadiem Amiri, who was part of Hoffenheim’s 2015/16 squad that last completed such a turnaround.
With three goals and an assist to his name so far this season, the Germany international will be ready to turn up the heat in new year and guide the 05ers to another season of top tier football.
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