Who will come out on top in Saturday's Klassiker meeting between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund? - © DFL 2023
Who will come out on top in Saturday's Klassiker meeting between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund? - © DFL 2023

Match Facts Analysis: Who has the edge between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund?


It's almost time for the big one: Bayern Munich against Borussia Dortmund in the Matchday 26 Klassiker. With the help of our Bundesliga Match Facts Analysis tool, we shine the spotlight on which players have stood out so far and what could be the key to success on Saturday.

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xGoals and shot efficiency

As well as occupying the top two positions in the Bundesliga standings, Bayern and Dortmund are also out in front in terms of league goals scored this season (72 and 55 respectively) and expected goals (57.0 and 48.4).

As such, Bayern's shot efficiency quota stands at +15 (that is, they've scored 15 goals more than statistically expected per the xG metric), putting them top in that particular category. Dortmund's efficiency of 'only' +6.6 puts them fourth overall, but in the 2023 calendar year it's +10.4, which is better than any other team.

Furthermore, the top three players in terms of efficiency in front of goal this term are all at either Bayern or Dortmund: Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting (+4.4), Julian Brandt (+4.2) and Jamal Musiala (+4.1)

Watch: All of Choupo-Moting's Bundesliga goals for Bayern

Speed demons

Dortmund attacker Karim Adeyemi set a new all-time Bundesliga speed record earlier this season when he clocked 22.77 mph (36.65 km/h) in his side's 5-1 win over Freiburg on Matchday 19.

Given his jet-heeled acceleration the 21-year-old can beat most players in a footrace, giving BVB an added weapon in their armoury when it comes to balls over the top and finding space behind opposition defences.

That will be far from easy at the Allianz Arena, given the presence of Alphonso Davies in Bayern's rearguard. The Canadian is fourth in the all-time speed charts (22.69 mph/36.51 km/h), and third this season (22.49 mph/36.20 km/h).

As if that were not enough, Bayern have a second player in the top 10 fastest players this season: Leroy Sane. The Germany international has been recorded at 22.30 mph (35.90 km/h), doing so when racing back to cut off a counter, giving the Reds another speedy option of their own at both ends of the pitch.

Watch: Adeyemi's all-time Bundesliga speed record

Most Pressed Player

Perhaps as a consequence of being Bayern's 11-goal top scorer and one of the most shot-efficient players in the division, Musiala has been put under pressure by opposition players more than anyone else in 2022/23, namely 499 times, with teams eager to snuff out his threat. Jude Bellingham has clearly been earmarked as Dortmund's dangerman by opposition scouts, as the England international runs his friend a close second (497).

Pressure handling

While the two youngsters may be pressed more than anyone else, a different Bayern player comes up trumps when it comes to escaping said pressure: Dayot Upamecano. The Frenchman has an escape rate of 73 percent – the second highest ratio in the league. Dortmund's Salih Özcan (72 percent), and Bayern's Joshua Kimmich (71) and Josip Stanisic (70) are all in the top six.

Watch: Der Klassiker - time to get real

Passing Profile

Bayern are the most assured team on the ball in the Bundesliga this season, with a passing efficiency of +312.2, which is to say they've successfully completed 312 more passes than statistically expected. Dortmund are third in this category with +64.

Unsurprisingly then, three Bayern players occupy the podium positions for passing: Kimmich (+73.7), Benjamin Pavard (+37.6) and Thomas Müller (31.0) are the best in the business in 2022/23, while Niklas Süle is Dortmund's best (+26.7), putting him seventh overall.

Set-piece kings

Bayern are the league's second most dangerous side when it comes to free-kicks, scoring from such situations 85 percent more frequently than the Bundesliga average. Dortmund are third in this chart, at 69 percent above the league average.

Watch: Thomas Müller - a Klassiker specialist


Bundesliga Match Facts breaks down almost every aspect of the game into easily digestible statistical chunks – simplified under the name 'Skills'. Of the 40 players across the four Skills in the BMF catalogue, Bayern players occupy 11 of those spots, with Dortmund claiming four berths.

Adeyemi, for example, is in pole position in the 'Sprinter' category, followed by Davies and Sane. Choupo-Moting, Musiala and Brandt – the most efficient players in front of goals – are top of the charts in the 'Finisher' pool.

Müller, Davies, Musiala, Sane, Brandt and Choupo-Moting are also all among top 10 'Initiators', which is to say the players who create goalscoring chances for their teams most frequently. Meanwhile, centre-backs Upamecano, Nico Schlotterbeck and Matthijs de Ligt are all in the top 10 for 'Ball Winners', defined as regaining possession through a tackle or an interception.