How soon can Bayern Munich win the title? Or what will it take for RB Leipzig to usurp the record champions? - © DFL
How soon can Bayern Munich win the title? Or what will it take for RB Leipzig to usurp the record champions? - © DFL
bundesliga

Bundesliga 2020/21 title permutations between Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig

Bayern Munich have been made to wait for their ninth straight Bundesliga title after defeat away at Mainz and RB Leipzig’s victory over VfB Stuttgart. With three matches left to go, what are the permutations for the 2020/21 title race?

Bayern would've been champions with three games to spare and done so under their own steam if they had beaten Mainz at the Opel Arena, moving 13 points clear of Leipzig, who would've had only four matches left. However, they slipped to a 2-1 loss that saw the champagne put away for now.

Die Roten Bullen therefore needed at least a draw at home to VfB Stuttgart on the Sunday to take the race further. They got that with a 2-0 win to cut the gap to seven points. However, they are still reliant on Bayern not winning again if they are to win the first trophy in their history (they are also in the DFB Cup semi-finals this season).

There is also still a chance Bayern's 30th Bundesliga crown and associated fifth star will come without them kicking a ball as Leipzig play first on Matchday 32. Two of their titles have previously been won without them playing thanks to results elsewhere (1988/89 and 2014/15). They are also still only one win from glory, but the race could also still go to the wire.

Watch: Highlights of Bayern’s defeat at Mainz

Matchday 32

Fixtures: Bayern vs. Gladbach (Saturday 6.30pm GMT+2); Dortmund vs. Leipzig (Saturday 3.30pm GMT+2)

Bayern will be champions if:

  • Leipzig lose in Dortmund
  • Both teams draw
  • Bayern beat Gladbach regardless of the earlier result at the Signal Iduna Park.

The race continues if:

  • Leipzig win in Dortmund and Bayern lose to Gladbach (now 4 points difference)
  • Leipzig win in Dortmund and Bayern draw to Gladbach (now 5 points difference)
  • Leipzig draw and Bayern lose (now 6 points difference)

Matchday 33

Fixtures: Freiburg vs. Bayern; Leipzig vs. Wolfsburg (both Saturday 3.30pm GMT+2)

Bayern will be champions if:

  • Bayern win at Freiburg
  • Leipzig lose to Wolfsburg
  • Both teams draw
  • Leipzig fail to win when the gap was six points
  • Leipzig fail to win when the gap was five points
  • Leipzig do not better Bayern’s result when the gap was four points

The race continues if:

  • Leipzig win and Bayern draw when the gap was four points (now 2 points difference)
  • Leipzig win and Bayern lose when the gap was four points (now 1 point difference)
  • Leipzig draw and Bayern lose when the gap was four points (now 3 points difference)
  • Leipzig win and Bayern draw when the gap was five points (now 3 points difference)
  • Leipzig win and Bayern lose when the gap was five points (now 2 points difference)
  • Leipzig win and Bayern lose when the gap was six points (now 3 points difference)

Watch: Highlights of a nervy Bayern win over Freiburg earlier in the season

Matchday 34

Fixtures: Bayern vs. Augsburg; Union vs. Leipzig (both Saturday 3.30pm GMT+2)

Bayern will be champions if:

  • Bayern win against Augsburg
  • Leipzig lose against Union
  • Both teams get the same result
  • Bayern draw when the gap was three points
  • Bayern draw and Leipzig fail to win when the gap was one or two points
  • Bayern draw and Leipzig win in a way that fails to overturn the goal difference when the gap was two points
  • Bayern lose and Leipzig do not win when the gap was three or two points
  • Bayern lose and Leipzig draw in a way that fails to overturn the goal difference when the gap was one point

Leipzig will be champions if:

  • Bayern lose and Leipzig win in a way that overturns the goal difference when the gap was three points
  • Bayern lose and Leipzig win when the gap was one or two points
  • Bayern lose and Leipzig draw in a way that overturns the goal difference when the gap was one point
  • Bayern draw and Leipzig win when the gap was one point
  • Bayern draw and Leipzig win in a way that overturns the goal difference when the gap was two points.