Why Borussia Dortmund will beat Tottenham Hotspur in the UEFA Champions League
Borussia Dortmund travel to North London to face English Premier League side Tottenham Hotspur in their first UEFA Champions League game of the new year on Tuesday night. Here’s just a few reasons why the Bundesliga club will come out on top.
The first of those reasons is their defence. Dortmund have conceded just 17 league goals this season, the second best defensive record in the Bundesliga and only three more than leaders Bayern Munich’s much lauded backline.
They’ve become incredibly difficult to break down under Niko Kovač and have picked up nine clean sheets thus far in the Bundesliga, one more than their Klassiker rivals, with three of those coming in their last six games.
The importance of that strong defensive foundation can’t be understated, with the Black Yellows winning all but one of the games in which they’ve kept a clean sheet.
Watch: The Niko Kovač way
Their ability to keep the ball out of their own net is a result of exceptional defensive work higher up the pitch, with BVB sitting third in the league when it comes to intensive runs, and fourth in the sprints chart. While their off-the-ball intensity is proving a nightmare for teams, Dortmund also cause plenty of problems with it. They sit third for completing successful passes from open play (85.7 percent), meaning their opponents can’t switch off for a second, in either phase of play.
As impressive as they have been at the back this season, Kovač’s men have also been lethal in the attacking third. In the Champions League, they’ve scored 19 goals in just six games, the joint-highest total in the competition alongside reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain.
Watch: Dortmund edge thriller with St. Pauli
In the Bundesliga, they’ve netted 35 times in 18 games - four more than Tottenham have managed in the Premier League having played four more games - and the joint-third highest in Germany’s top tier.
They’ve also managed to rack up that goal tally with 220 shots, producing a combined xG of 31.5. They have outscored that stat by over three goals, which is the gives them the fourth-most clinical attack in Germany's top flight.
As aware as Tottenham might be of BVB’s potent attack, stopping it will be difficult. That’s because the goals have been spread between their forward line, with Serhou Guirassy their top scorer in the league with six. Maximilian Beier, Julian Brandt and Karim Adeyemi are all close behind with five. It’s a similar story in Europe too, with Guirassy, Brandt and Felix Nmecha their top scorers on three goals each.
At this point, it may be starting to sound like they can’t be beaten, and that’s not too far from the truth. Out of the 26 games they’ve played across the Bundesliga, Champions League and DFB Cup so far, Dortmund have only lost three of those.
Their league record stands at 11 wins, six draws and one loss from 18 games. In Europe, their sole loss came away to Manchester City (4-1), with the other five games ending in three wins and two draws. The DFB Cup is where they recorded their third, and arguably most painful, defeat of the season – a narrow 1-0 loss at home to Bayer Leverkusen, which saw them bow out of the competition in the round of 16 and miss out on the chance for domestic silverware.
Therefore, the fire for redemption will be burning bright in their camp, especially when it comes to their upcoming opponents from North London.
This will be the seventh time the two teams have met in the competition, with Spurs coming into this fixture with four victories from their previous six encounters. Dortmund did win the other two games, but those wins came in their first two meetings, meaning BVB will be aiming to break their four-game losing streak against them.
Kovač, though, has particularly fond memories of the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. He was in charge of Bayern when they smashed seven in North London back in 2019. That result remains Spurs' heaviest home defeat in Europe.
Thomas Frank's side are also horribly out of form, managing just one win in their last eight competitive fixtures since beating Slavia Prague in the Champions League. His side may only trail Dortmund by goals scored in the league phase, but confidence and the form guide is in the Bundesliga club's favour.
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