Match Facts comparison: Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen meet in Matchday 25's big game at the Allianz Arena. To put it into context, the league leaders play host to the team with the second-best record since the turn of the year, and Bundesliga Match Facts' comparison can tell you even more about these two form monsters.
Just in time for Matchday 25, and this intriguing tussle between Bayern and Leverkusen, the Bundesliga, in cooperation with AWS, has unveiled two new Match Facts. With the new 'Skill' Match Fact, the top-ten players are ranked within the areas of 'Ball-winner', 'Sprinter', 'Initiator' and 'Finisher'. Of these combined 40 players, 16 are from Bayern and Leverkusen.
Alphonso Davies and Jeremie Frimpong are first and second in the top-ten Sprinters, for example. This category not only takes into consideration a player's top speed, but also their number of sprints as well as their average top speed.
Watch: The new 'Set Piece Threat' and 'Skill' Bundesliga Match Facts
Robert Lewandowski and Patrik Schick, on the other hand, top the charts in the Finisher ranking, where not only the actual number of goals scored, but also goalscoring threat per 90 minutes and effectiveness in front of goal are considered.
With Davies and Schick both ruled out this weekend, the 'Initiator' factor moves into the focus with several key players who are leading the way in that particular category expected to be on display. This classification of the perfect combination of assists, expected assists (xA), the quantity of passes that lead to an assist and successful difficult passes has Thomas Müller, Florian Wirtz, Leroy Sane and Serge Gnabry occupying the top four positions.
One player in particular can be expected to catch the eye this weekend, with Moussa Diaby the only player to feature in the top ten of three of the categories: Sprinter, Finisher and Initiator.
But that is not all. The new 'Set Piece Threat' Match Fact, which analyses the goalscoring danger teams pose from corners and free-kicks, has Bayern and Leverkusen among the top three teams, together with Freiburg. With that in mind, don't say we didn't predict that this game could be decided from a dead-ball situation.
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What makes both Bayern and Leverkusen so impressive, though, is their efficiency. On the one hand, they are both particularly efficient in passing the ball. That means that more of their passes reach their intended recipient than would be expected in view of the xPass model. Bayern lead the way with an efficiency of +207, with Leverkusen behind them in third place on +116. Some of the players we can expect to see in action this weekend are responsible for that, in particular Joshua Kimmich and Niklas Süle. The two Germany internationals have the best pass efficiency in the league at +46.1 and +40.3 respectively, while Leverkusen's Exequiel Palacios (+22.3) and Bayern's Benjamin Pavard (+22.2) are also in the league's top ten.
And this is where Kimmich's genius can be seen so clearly. Bayern's midfield motor has the best passing efficiency in the Bundesliga, even though he has been Bayern's Most Pressed Player in seven of his 18 Bundesliga appearances this season. That means he was the player Bayern's opponents put under the most pressure when he was in possession, yet Kimmich was still able to hold his nerve even under such special attention. The same applies also to Wirtz, who was Leverkusen's Most Pressed Player in nine of his 22 appearances but was still able to supply 10 assists from this pressure – a figure inferior only to Müller's 16 assists this season.
It should come as no surprise, in view of their goals scored (75-63) that Bayern and Leverkusen are particularly good when it comes to finishing. Their efficiency in front of goal can be measured by xG (Expected Goals), and Bayern – with an xG of -0.2 (third across the league) – are scoring pretty much as many goals as could be expected from the chances they have created. Leverkusen, on the other hand, have been particularly ruthless with an xG of +13.3.
According to xG, Die Werkself should have scored 50 goals this season, yet they have found the back of the net 63 times, with much of the credit going to Schick, Diaby and Wirtz, who all figure in the top ten players with the best goalscoring efficiency, with only Gnabry representing Bayern in that particular ranking. With Schick missing out at the weekend, Leverkusen will be without a key performer in front of goal.
Watch: Highlights of Bayern's 5-1 win in Leverkusen earlier this season
Furthermore, both sides have proven to be pretty unpredictable, with their Attacking Zones looking very balanced across the board. Leverkusen have launched more attacks (37 per cent) down the right than down the left (31 per cent), but that is largely due to the aforementioned Diaby – a man who could prove decisive for his team this Saturday, as he looks to add to the seven goals he has scored in his past five games. Nobody – not even Lewandowski – has scored as many as the league's form player over the same period.
Yet for all their attacking riches, both teams have shown susceptibility at the back. Looking at the xGA (Expected Goals Against) model, both Bayern (+2.6) and Leverkusen (+2.7) have conceded more than would be expected from the number of shots their opponents have taken, ranking both clubs in the lower third across the Bundesliga. That all suggests Saturday's game will produce plenty of goals, with both teams openly attacking each other – as they both know best.
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