Why Bayer Leverkusen will beat Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League last 16
Bayer Leverkusen will continue their 2025/26 UEFA Champions League journey with a last-16 encounter against Arsenal, with the first leg to be played at the BayArena on Wednesday (kick-off: 6.45pm CET).
While the Gunners topped the league phase, Leverkusen’s recent good form and strong record versus English clubs will give them every chance of progressing.
Kasper Hjulmand’s side may have started 2026 with a wobble, losing each of their first three games, but the Werkself have improved dramatically since then.
Leverkusen have now lost just one of their past 11 games in all competitions, a run that includes a two-legged play-off against Olympiacos in this competition. The 2023/24 Bundesliga winners also find themselves in the battle for a top-four spot and into the DFB Cup semi-finals, making this clash with Arsenal one of several huge games over the coming weeks.
A solid defence has been at the heart of their recent upturn in form. Over those aforementioned 11 fixtures, Leverkusen have conceded on just four occasions, keeping an impressive seven clean sheets – two of which were against Olympiacos. During the same spell, no team has managed two goals in a single game versus a backline that is starting to shine.
Edmond Tapsoba is the experienced head, flanking captain Robert Andrich and new arrival Jarell Quansah, who has now fully settled into his surroundings after his summer arrival. In the Bundesliga, top two Bayern and Borussia Dortmund are the only two teams to ship fewer goals than Leverkusen’s 29.
At the other end of the pitch, Leverkusen may not have been quite as ruthless, but they have talent to call upon. Patrik Schick has four strikes in the Champions League this term, including a brace in the play-off versus Olympiacos, and 13 in all competitions to make him his side’s highest scorer. Alejandro Grimaldo, meanwhile, remains as dangerous as ever with 11 strikes.
Watch: Leverkusen's top 5 goals this season
In recent weeks, Ibrahim Maza and Malik Tillman have contributed, as has Christian Kofane. Although staying solid at the back will be crucial to Leverkusen’s chances, they can call on quality to give them the edge.
Arsenal may be top of the Premier League, but Leverkusen will have no qualms about facing English opposition. In fact, they have lost only one of their past seven games against the country’s teams, having beaten Manchester City away and drawn with Newcastle United already this campaign.
Additionally, two-legged knockout ties against English teams have also often gone in Leverkusen’s favour. The German outfit have progressed from four out of a possible five such match-ups, with the only elimination coming against Liverpool in 2004/05 – for context, the Reds went on to win the trophy that year. Meanwhile, their upcoming opponents have won only eight of their past 24 meetings with Bundesliga teams.
Watch: Simon Rolfes reacts to Leverkusen's Champions League last-16 draw
There is no doubt that Arsenal will provide a big challenge, but that is the nature of the Champions League. Having got this far, Leverkusen have already shown their ability, and there is no reason why their adventure has to stop here.
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