What do Germany need to reach the quarter-finals of the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League?
Germany’s first four games under Jürgen Klopp have produced one win, two draws and one defeat, leaving progress to the quarter-finals of the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League in the balance. Can they still make the knockouts with two matches remaining in November?
Klopp’s experimental first squads at the helm have earned Germany five points from those first four outings, having drawn 1-1 in the Netherlands, lost 1-0 at home to Greece, beaten Serbia 2-0 and then playing out a goalless draw in Greece.
The Netherlands and Greece top Group A2 with eight points and a +2 goal difference each. Xavi’s Dutch lead the way on goals scored. Serbia are yet to get a result and are bottom.
The top two in each League A group advance to the quarter-finals in 2027.
The four fourth-placed teams across the groups form their own ranking, with the two worst performers being relegated to League B. The better two teams and the two worst performing third-placed teams across the four groups will contest the play-offs against four teams from League B. The two third-placed teams with the best records are safe in League A for the next edition.
This format for promotion/relegation has changed from previous years to allow for the reduction of four leagues to three for the 2028/29 edition, with 18 teams across each of the three leagues.
Bearing this in mind, Serbia can no longer finish in the top two of Group A2. The Netherlands and Greece cannot finish bottom and be automatically relegated. Germany’s fate is still wide open and could well be affected by every single goal scored.
Germany’s remaining Group A2 fixtures:
Serbia vs. Germany, 13 November
Germany vs. Netherlands, 16 November
Two wins in Belgrade and Berlin would put Klopp’s men on 11 points. However, there is a fair chance that both the Netherlands and Greece could also finish on the same total, given the Dutch host their rivals and then Greece welcome Serbia. Home wins apiece would not be unexpected.
Should either nation slip up and Germany play their part, then Klopp’s side would be in the top two and through to the knockout rounds in March. But if all three teams are locked on points, then the following criteria apply:
- Head-to-head results (of all teams tied on points, i.e. excluding Serbia) – Germany already know they will lose out to Greece in this regard
- Goal difference in head-to-head encounters
- Goals scored in head-to-head encounters
- Goal difference in entire group
- Goals scored in entire group
- Away goals scored in entire group
- Games won
- Away games won
- Disciplinary record
- Higher position in 2026/27 UEFA Nations League access list
In the context of Group A2, in this scenario each team will have one win over another and it will come down to goal difference. It could even come to a situation where every goal between Germany and the Netherlands in Berlin would change the outcome.
Given how tight things are, it could also be that two wins from the final two games aren’t enough for Germany to break into the top two. That would leave them at risk of a relegation play-off, although 11 points would almost certainly keep them safe. In that event, their Nations League campaign will be over and their next competitive fixture will be in UEFA Euro 2028 qualifying in March.
