2023/24 Bundesliga permutations: Who can qualify for Europe, who will be relegated?
Bayer Leverkusen are already champions, four other teams are assured of UEFA Champions League football next season, while Darmstadt are confirmed as relegated. Find out which other teams' fates can be decided on Matchday 33...
Make your predictions for the remaining games to see how the table could look
Title
This is done and dusted already, with Leverkusen ending Bayern’s 11-year reign with the third-quickest title in 61 seasons of the Bundesliga on Matchday 29. The question now for the Werkself is whether they can become the first-ever unbeaten side. They have just two games to go to achieve that...
Watch: Leverkusen’s title story
UEFA Champions League
Leverkusen also became the first team from any country to book their place in the revamped 2024/25 Champions League way back on Matchday 27.
Matchday 31 saw Bayern officially clinch their Champions League spot with a win against Eintracht Frankfurt.
Borussia Dortmund's semi-final first-leg victory over Paris Saint-Germain has already secured the Bundesliga a fifth Champions League qualifier berth. Therefore, VfB Stuttgart, RB Leipzig and BVB are all now also assured of Champions League football in 2024/25 regardless of what happens over the remaining matchdays.
Find out more about how the Bundesliga earned a fifth Champions League spot
Watch: The season finale!
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Remaining European places
Sixth place
As it stands, sixth place will mean UEFA Europa League qualification.
Eintracht Frankfurt can wrap that up on Matchday 33 if:
- They win at Borussia Mönchengladbach on Saturday
- They draw and Freiburg (who host Heidenheim on Saturday) and Hoffenheim (who go to Darmstadt on Sunday) don’t win
- Freiburg lose, and Hoffenheim and Augsburg (who host Stuttgart on Friday) don’t win
If Dortmund finish fifth but are also crowned European champions this season, the team that finishes sixth in the Bundesliga would also qualify for the Champions League. The Europa League spot will then shift down to seventh. If BVB win the Champions League but finish in the top four, sixth place does not earn a Champions League berth.
Seventh place
Currently, the team that comes seventh in this season’s Bundesliga will be in next season’s UEFA Conference League play-offs.
Frankfurt will be assured of finishing at least seventh if:
- They draw and Freiburg or Hoffenheim don’t win on Matchday 33
- two of the following three situations occur: Freiburg lose, Hoffenheim don’t win, Augsburg don’t win
Freiburg will be assured of finishing at least seventh if:
- They beat Heidenheim, Hoffenheim lose, and Augsburg and Werder Bremen (who go to Leipzig on Saturday) don’t win
If Leverkusen win the DFB Cup to complete a domestic double following the completion of the Bundesliga season, then seventh place would become a Europa League place, with the team that finishes eighth going into the Conference League play-offs.
In the event of Dortmund winning the Champions League (while finishing fifth) and Leverkusen the DFB Cup, there will still only be eight German qualifiers for Europe - six in the Champions League, one in the Europa League, one in the Conference League play-offs.
More on the Bundesliga's race for Europe
Relegation
The bottom two drop down to Bundesliga 2 automatically, while third from bottom will contest the play-off against the team that finishes third in the second division.
Bottom side Darmstadt are relegated after only one season back in the top flight after their loss to fellow promoted side Heidenheim on Matchday 31. They will also finish in 18th place.
Watch: Darmstadt's relegation confirmed
More on the relegation battle here
Cologne are now on the cusp and will fall through the trap door if they fail to beat 15th-placed Union Berlin, who are six points ahead in the last safe spot.
Safety
People often talk about the 40-point mark for safety in the Bundesliga, but 36 is enough this year. It means all teams from 12th and above cannot go down. Those placed 14th and higher cannot finish in the bottom two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach (vs. Frankfurt on Saturday) and Bochum (vs. Leverkusen on Sunday) will secure top-flight survival if:
- They win
- They draw and Union lose in Cologne on Saturday or Mainz fail to beat Dortmund on Saturday
- Mainz lose
Union will secure top-flight survival if:
- They win in Cologne and Mainz lose
Union can finish no lower than 16th and the play-off place if they don’t lose to Cologne.
Mainz are assured of at least a shot at survival in the play-off if:
- They win at home to Dortmund on Saturday evening
- Cologne don’t win against Union in the afternoon
Find out about the promotion race from Bundesliga 2
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